广州和乾财务咨询有限公司

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从2014年开始，中国房地产市场已经进入高度分化时期。在经济总量最大的30来个城市，由于公共资源优越，能持续吸引外来人口，故房价仍存在上涨动力。不过，中国绝大部分三、四、五线城市，房地产已经彻底熄火，这些城市要么人口严重流失，要么增长缓慢，但都集中建设了体量庞大的商品房和非商品房，根本无法消化。若在这些中小城市的新区、郊区贸然买房，那跟掉入陷阱没有任何区别。

股市投资难做

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中国股市将来会有波澜壮阔的大牛市，但需要满足以下前提条件：改革和经济转型获得重要进展，出现能取代房地产的新支柱行业，IPO注册制改革完成，证券市场真正做到了执法必严、违法必究。没有这些条件，牛市就像打了激素，假的。
　　
2015年是中国经济转型的重要年份，是人民币计价资产面临美元加息考验的重要年份，但一波以“稳增长”为目标的行情已经被发动起来。2015年股市将怎样走，充满了悬念。如果IPO注册制改革被延缓，一波政策牛市也许会短暂出现；但如果改革按照既定节奏进行，那么当前行情已经接近尾声。总之，2015年的股市非常难做，结构性机会低于2014年，股民弄不好就落入陷阱。

P2P产品不宜过多

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2015年也许是互联网金融野蛮生长的最后一年，预计从这一年开始监管将逐步规范、到位。随着大资金逐步介入，行业竞争将更加激烈。预计将有一大批P2P网站倒闭，一批老板跑路。因此，投资者在选择这类产品的时候需要谨记以下原则：在自己所有投资资金中，P2P投资不要超过三分之一。购买P2P产品的时候，注意分散投资，至少分投到三个网站。每家网站，需要考察其股东背景、经理人资质，以及公司信誉。自己没有筛选能力的朋友，最好在正规的金融平台上进行选择，以降低风险。

民间借贷成“危墙”

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民间借贷的风险比P2P还高，所以许诺的回报也比P2P高。2015年将是中国民间借贷风险集中爆发的一年，此前安阳、邯郸、神木等地民间借贷风险已经陆续被引爆。如果你还有资金放在这个领域，最好撤出来。所谓君子不立于危墙之下，民间借贷就是当前最大的“危墙”。随着网贷服务的普及，银行及有资质的相关机构贷款流程将更加方便快捷，有借贷需求的朋友还是通过正规渠道办理最为安全。

煤炭、房地产信托产品违约频出

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从2014年出现问题的信托产品来看，主要投向集中在煤炭、房地产等领域。煤炭的黄金十年已经结束，产能过剩、价格下滑，所以出现了比较集中的违约现象。房地产信托产品的违约才刚刚开始，估计未来两年会集中爆发。三四五线城市房地产项目风险都比较大，尤其是这些城市的商业地产项目，千万要小心

大宗商品将呈弱势

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大宗商品的熊市在未来两年仍将继续，这是两大原因造成的：第一，美元进入加息周期；第二，中国经济转变增长方式，房地产增速下滑。大宗商品的四大金刚：石油、黄金、铁矿石、煤炭等，至少在2015年都将呈现弱势。投资不要与趋势相对抗，在现阶段，至少不要使用杠杆盲目抄底。

死守传统无异于“等死

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移动互联网对传统行业的全面整合，将从2015年开始全面展开。也就是说，经济领域正在经历改朝换代般的巨变。在这样的时代，如果死守传统，不思变革，无异于坐井观天、自困愁城。有传统行业的资深人士抱怨说，自己从业20多年，混到企业中层，但现在收入不比快递员高多少。这是太懒、不思进取的缘故。

盲目创新 风险更大

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“等死模式”固然悲催，但似乎比“找死模式”好一些。在大变革的年代，往往会有一些人或者企业，在没有充分想清楚的情况下，贸然跟自己熟悉的行业、商业模式决裂，转入全新的、未经验证的领域，想赌把大的。我们都知道，当年一窝蜂做博客的企业，都已经死了；一窝蜂做团购的企业，也消亡了99%；盲目创新，其实风险更大。

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